Simple Truths About Trades

During a morning health class at Acalanes High School, in the winter of 1987/88, I often found myself writing baseball lineups or letters instead of taking notes.  Some of those letters were to Al Rosen, who was the San Francisco Giants General Manager at that time.  I usually proposed some trade idea, because it was pretty likely I was going to come up with complex scenarios that would never cross his mind, and then I always closed with a plea to "never trade Clark, Thompson, or Dravecky, and retire all their numbers!"  While he took my advice, kind of, on that last line, he never made any of the trades I suggested.  That could be because they were mostly trades that would have the Giants send a big pile of crap for a superstar (say ... Mike LaCoss, Harry Spillman, Joe Price, and "hot" prospect Francisco Melendez for Benito Santiago).  My baseball knowledge and passion had grown significantly during the '87 season, and I felt pretty confident that I was coming up with incredibly savvy and creative ideas.  I tried similar approaches to trading baseball cards, and that didn't work either.  I'm still perplexed why my friend didn't want to swap his Gregg Jeffries Rated Rookie card for 17 Ron Hasseys.

I'd like to think that I've learned a few things about trades in the years since high school health class, so here are some things to keep in mind before you freak out about what your favorite team does or doesn't do as we head toward the trade deadline.  

1.  Trades usually have to make sense, on some level, for both teams.  I say "usually" because we are talking about a world in which the Pirates traded Rajai Davis for Matt Morris, but besides that, there has to be something each side gets out of the deal.  There are a lot of factors that go into a team pulling the trigger on a trade, but they have to feel like they are receiving some benefit.

You probably aren't the first person
to figure out Gaby Sanchez can hit.

2.  The chances are good that that other team's General Manager does, in fact, know how awesome that guy on his team really is.  I see you looking over there at that young, talented kid on that other team.  Gaby Sanchez?  Madison Bumgarner?  Justin Upton?  Robinson Cano?  Yeah, you're not going to be able to trick them into trading you those guys, especially when you're offering young players you already know have very little chance of living up to their hype.  If you know their guy is good and your guy isn't, that team's front office probably knew that 5 years ago.  Sorry.

3.  Money is a huge factor.  Some teams have some to spend.  More teams are looking to spend less.  Either way, both teams are looking at the dollars as closely as they are the players' abilities.

4.  "We couldn't have offered more than that?" is heard from fans of every team who failed to acquire the impact player they longed for.  I've said it more than once.  In fact, I fully expect to have a conversation in the next week that consists almost entirely of my Dad and I saying this to each other. But remember that these teams, even the small market ones, invest millions and millions of dollars into scouting and analysis, while I read some websites and watch SportsCenter.  As smart and insightful as I am, there are probably some things that I don't know that I don't know.  And again, there are plenty of financial things going on behind the scenes that you and I are unaware of.

5.  Sometimes you have to trade tomorrow for today.  Every fan dreams of a championship dynasty that would be compared to Ming instead of the Yankees, and for that to happen your team has to continue to produce successful players from within its own system.  But the reality is, sometimes this year is your chance, and you have to trade legitimate, high-ceiling prospects for the piece you're sorely missing.  In a perfect world, it works out for both teams.

6.  Other teams are also looking to improve.  Keep in mind that, unless a team is trying to lose enough games to trigger a clause in their contract that would allow them to move to Florida, teams want to compete and win.  That means beating the other teams.  At this moment, somewhere between 3 and 7 teams are making attempts to acquire Carlos Beltran from the New York Mets.  Not only does the team that ends up with him improve their squad, they also keep him from a team they might be in a pennant race with, or could see in a playoff series.  Every year, there are fewer true "impact" players available than there are teams that could use them, and any of the reasons we've talked about might mean another team matches up better for the selling team than yours does.  It's a drag when your team misses out, but it's just going to happen some of the time.

So this year when you're playing amateur GM, refreshing your Twitter feed and MLBTradeRumors at a frantic pace for the most up-to-the-minute info, try to keep these truths in mind.  And then yell at your TV, call your Dad, and write letters to Al Rosen.