Official 2012 Baseball Picks & Predictions

As we head toward the end of what has become Opening Week, it's time to unveil our picks for who will be playing in October and who will be taking home baseball's major awards.  Like pretty much everyone who makes public pre-season picks, we won't remind anyone of this post in November unless one of us (or both of us) were really close.  That's just a little up front transparency.  We made our picks individually, then got together over some bratwurst during the Tigers/Red Sox game on the Opening Day 3.0 and compared lists.

AL East
Adam:  Red Sox
Gabe:  Red Sox

AL Central
Adam:  Tigers
Gabe:  Tigers

AL West
Adam:  Angels
Gabe:  Rangers

AL Wild Cards
Adam:  Yankees and Rangers
Gabe:  Yankees and Angels

AL Pennant
Adam:  Red Sox
Gabe:  Angels

NL East
Adam:  Phillies
Gabe:  Braves

NL Central
Adam:  Cardinals
Gabe:  Reds

NL West
Adam:  Rockies
Gabe:  D-Bags

NL Wild Cards
Adam:  Braves and Giants
Gabe:  Phillies and Giants

NL Pennant
Adam:  Giants
Gabe:  D-Bags

World Series Winner
Adam:  Giants
Gabe:  Angels

So yeah, I feel like a bad fan for not picking the Giants to go all the way, but I'm not yet convinced that their pitching and hitting can top Arizona's hitting and pitching.  Of course that doesn't mean I don't want them to win, because I hope they do, but a lot of things will have to go right for them to get into the playoffs.  And that's Adam's reason for picking them to go all the way.  He said "I just think if the Giants get to the postseason they may be unbeatable."  I hope he's right.  But I wouldn't bet on it.  Unless we were betting Mexican food.  Or pie.  Because hey, even if I lose ... I'd still get pie.

Anyway, I'm going with the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim because I expect them to take a little while to gel as a unit, to the point they may not catch Texas for the division title, but once they do they will be extremely tough to beat.  They're going to excel in every facet of the game.

That said, we both feel like the race for last in the AL West will be almost as hard fought as the race for first.  The A's and Mariners will most likely be really, really bad.  Nigh-unwatchable even (sorry A's fans, and Dave and Anthony).

We also agree that the biggest runaway division winner will be Detroit.  Adam said "They were going to win that division before they signed Prince Fielder."

Ok.  Awards and ... other picks.  Again, we made our picks without any collaboration.  We're just that good.

AL MVP
Adam:  Robinson Cano

Your unanimous 2012 MVP Award winners

Gabe:  Robinson Cano
Right now he's likely the best player on a team loaded with All Stars and Hall of Famers.

NL MVP
Adam:  Justin Upton
Gabe:  Justin Upton
It's his time to shine.

AL Cy Young
Adam:  Jeff Weaver ("They're going to score a ton of runs and he'll get enough wins that people will notice how good his other numbers are.")
Gabe:  David Price ("The number one guy on the best overall pitching staff in baseball.  Even though their #5 starter has never won a Cy Young Award.")

NL Cy Young
Adam:  Cole Hamels (Me: "Walk year?"  Adam: "Yep.")
Gabe:  Tim Lincecum ("Wants to prove he's still the top dog in San Francisco.")

AL Manager of the Year
Adam:  Mike Scioscia
Gabe:  Joe Maddon

NL Manager of the Year
Adam:  Mike Matheny ("They're going to continue to be a powerhouse and Matheny is going to get a lot of the credit for that.")
Gabe:  Kirk Gibson ("... whom I hate.")

AL Comeback Player
Adam:  Kendry Morales
Gabe:  Adam Lind (Adam: "Wow.  Didn't he hit like, 30 homers last year?"  Me: "That's the most condescending 'wow' you've ever said to me."  Adam: "And there have been a lot of condescending 'wows'."  Me: "Yep." And it was only 26 homers.)

NL Comeback Player
Adam:  Adam Wainwright
Gabe:  Buster Posey

NL Comeback Player, 1989 Edition
Adam:  Lonnie Smith (the actual winner, who came back from cocaine addiction)
Gabe:  Dave Dravecky (who should have won, after coming back from freaking cancer!)

AL Breakout Player
Adam:  Mitch Moreland
Gabe:  Jemile Weeks

NL Breakout Player
Adam:  Jason Heyward
Gabe:  Chase Headley

There you have it, our picks for 2012.  If we're right on (or even pretty darn close), you'll be seeing these again.  If not, check back next April for our 2013 picks.

Opening Morning Thoughts

I know Gabe wrote a great piece a few days ago on the opening day nightmare that Selig has created, but I wanted to make a couple of comments this morning on a missed opportunity. One of the great things about opening day is you get the best pitching match-ups possible, or at least you are supposed to. I am looking this morning at the match-up featuring Verlander against Lester. This is what opening day is supposed to be about in Major League Baseball. There is no guaranty that these two will face off again this year, and baseball needs to learn to take full advantage of these kinds of match-ups.

So many story lines in this game to watch.

Prince Fielder making his Detroit debut, which coincidentally has reignited the restaurant business in Detroit. Miguel Cabrera returning from a brutal spring training in jury. Verlander and his insane pitching arsenal coming off a season of complete dominance with the goal of even being better than before. Lester and the beer and chicken brigade trying to bounce back and regain so much of their trust equity in beantown. Bobby Valentine and his triumphant, err odd, return to the major league dugout. This match up would naturally be an easy sell and easy to hype if baseball just remained true to opening day.

Who cares about Lohse against Joshson or Felix against some future trade bait Athletic? The reality is there is something great about just letting what is opening day be opening day. Verlander against Lester. Hanson against Santana. Strasberg against that Cub guy. Halladay against some Pirate pretending to be Halladay. This is a great day and you should all be calling in sick to work to watch baseball. Don't let the schedulers take this day away. Enjoy it for what it is... the only day of the year that you will ever watch a Justin Masterson start!

Why I wouldn't want Elway to be my wingman

I would like to apologize for my long absence from the blog. There. I said it. So let’s get started with my feelings about John Elway.I am sure he is a good guy in his own self-centered arrogant schmucky kind of way. I am sure that he is fun at corporate parties, parades and Bronco legends games. But seriously, is there anyone on earth who trusts a single word that comes out of his gigantic mouth? I like Tim Tebow, but I don’t love him as a football player. So you can shelf all of your “Tebowmania” criticism of me. John Elway was a great player, maybe even one of the better QB’s in NFL history. He was great at captaining comebacks (of course he was only behind because he couldn’t score enough points in the 1st three quarters to give his team the lead…hmmmm… sounds like a left handed gator we all know), he was also great at scrambling, and won two Superbowls. I won’t mention the he led his team to getting housed three times in the big game by a grand total of 96 points!! The Bronco offense led by Mr. Elway was completely inept in those three games, but I am sure that his proponents will just blame their defense. So wait, “Tebowmaniacs” aren’t the only ones who mindlessly defend their guy? What? Crazy you say.

Anyway, I digress. John Elway needs to face the reality that he is no longer the captain of the Broncos. He isn’t the coach. He isn’t the owner. He is the Vice President of Football Operations. Yep. It’s the job that every team gives their great player to make sure that he stays their property. I am sure he is a great business man and I know he knows a ton about football but the one area he is really lacking in is the loyalty department. Loyalty is a scary thing. Sometimes it demands of us a forsaking of our own best interests for the betterment of others. Loyalty should be present in all of us, but seems to only be present in the best of us. The loyalty that Elway coveted from the Broncos organization when he was desiring employment with them is the same loyalty he refused to give his Broncos last year. Elway took to the airways over and over last year to sabotage his QB by refusing to ever state any trust in the young man trying to find his way in the league. And instead of remaining silent about his doubts like any mature person would, he opened his giant mouth every chance he got to adamantly get his objections of Tebow as the long term starter on the record. His reasoning was based on Tebow ineffectiveness on third downs. Yep, not winning and losing. Third downs. I hear it all the time, stats don’t lie my friend and Tebow’s stats are poor. Well lets have some fun with stats shall we? I have handpicked a few of the great John Elways stats to illustrate this foolishness.

1. He owns a less than stellar touchdown to interception ratio. He had 300 touchdowns to 226 interceptions. That’s right 1.32 to 1. That would be the same td/int ratio as Jeff George, which is incredibly lower than Tim Tebow’s ratio. For the record, Joe Montana’s ratio is 1.96 if you are looking for a contemporary of Elway. Marino is 1.66. Neil Lomax had one hip and mustered a strong 1.5. And the capper here? Tony Romo is over 2!
2. Jeff George has a higher QB Rating Elway. I can’t tell you how fun it was to type that sentence.
3. Jeff George has a higher Completion percentage than Elway. Ok, now I am just being mean.
4. Ok one more! John Elway threw more interceptions per attempt than Jeff George.

His stats are actually very average in most cases. But it’s about winning right? The entire soap opera was reminiscent of the way he sabotaged Baltimore after they took him with the first pick in the draft back in 1983 by leveraging the possibility of his baseball career with the Yankees against the Colts to force them to trade him to another, better, team. You see Elway didn’t want to play nice with the Colts because he had objections about their team quality and their hardnosed coach, so he just took to the airwaves and demanded a trade or he wouldn’t play football.

Oddly enough, during his ill-fated rookie campaign with the Broncos that ended with a shellacking at the hands of the Seahawks, he was pulled for Steve Deberg . Deberg held down the starting job for a few weeks until he got injured allowing Elway to start again, but of course when the playoffs rolled around Elway was replaced by Deberg yet again. You would think that being jerked around like that when you were a young starting QB would make you a bit more sensitive to the plight of your team’s new young QB, but not so with Mr. Elway. After his on air assault of Tebow failed and the Broncos , against all odds, won a playoff game he had no choice but to back his QB. I guess that’s what happens when you win games eh John? He ate some tasty crow and gave Tebow his unfettered support with a “was behind you all the way” kind of tone. He returned to the airwaves to tell the world that Tebow earned the starting job for next year and that he would certainly be the starter going into camp next summer. Whoa John, let’s not get too carried away with the gushy support. Well, he forgot to mention that earning it and receiving it are two completely different things in Elwayville. As a matter of fact I am sure that John Elway will announce this month that they are no longer using “gator”ade on the sidelines this year just to completely remove his Judas like betrayal from the minds of Bronco fans.

It is clear that John Elway needs to have things his way, and he seems to really hate the idea of anyone pushing in on his deity status in Denver. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out he kicked Terrell Davis in the knee back in 1999. On the flip side, I happen to be a big fan of Coach John Fox because he has always seemed like a really honest guy who coaches the right way. I inevitably felt bad for him during every press conference last year because you could tell that anytime he voiced any support for Tebow he would be called to Elway’s office to be beaten with a phone book for an hour whilst being asked “who is your daddy?” Honestly, if Peyton is too successful I wouldn’t be surprised to find out Elway books him on a flight to the Bermuda Triangle for a weekend getaway with Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo for winning Bronco employee of the month. Of course this saga would end with Elway calling of the local papers together to announce that he has recently activated himself for the playoffs.

I wish Peyton all the best during his time in Denver. When I saw the Peyton Manning United Way commercial on SNL a few years ago I dedicated myself to being a Peyton fan for life, so I refuse to renege on that now. But, I can never in good conscience root for the Broncos to achieve any level of success until the day comes that they part ways with Mr. Elway. With Manning in the fold they will certainly be a team that contends every year that he is healthy, possibly knocking on the door to the big game a time or two because Peyton is just that good. I know that trading away Tebow and signing Manning makes sense in every conceivable way from a football perspective, but the manner in which Elway treated a QB that was under his care last year proves he is only concerned about himself. Elway would certainly say to me that he didn’t draft Tebow and therefore wasn’t required to back him. Well, the Broncos didn’t draft you Mr. Elway, the Colts did, and you showed no allegiance to them whilst you whined your way into a trade to the Broncos . Maybe, just maybe, this pattern of disloyalty is really just the residue of what resides in the recesses of your dark self-serving mind.

...Or maybe I am just too needlessly bitter about this…

When I'm The Commissioner: Opening Day

I love opening day of the baseball season.  I watch 12 hours of games, eat ballpark food (like, 12 hours of garlic fries and polish dogs ... and I hope my doctor doesn't read this blog), keep the kids home from school, Adam comes over to hang out, and I generally treat it like the high holy day that it should be.  

Somehow, though, opening day seems to have lost a little of its luster this year.  Perhaps that's because opening day took place in the middle of the night.  The game started at 3:00AM (Pacific Time, which is the time zone of both of the teams that played), in Japan.  Not exhibition games, but real, counts-in-the-standings baseball.  It seems like the world's dumbest idea to attract new fans to the game while alienating the millions and millions of fans who are already on board and spending their money like crazy.

The A's and Mariners will play again in the middle of the night, then come home and play a couple more exhibition games before the regular season gets going.  

The Cardinals and Marlins open the regular season in America on Wednesday, April 3, but that's the only game that day, and then the Cards have the next day off.  April 4 sees 7 more games, including the Marlins in Cincinnati (which is the 6th game to start that day).  Everyone else gets rolling on Friday, April 5, including the Mariners and A's resuming their seasons in Oakland.

Blasphemy.  

Of all American sports, baseball is the one with the deepest and most important roots in its history and traditions.  I don't think of myself as a full-on purist (for instance, I think batters wearing helmets is a good thing), but this crazy opening day stuff has got to stop.  

The Major League Baseball season opens on a Monday, and the first game of the day is in Cincinnati.  And every team plays that day.  I don't give a crap how much Gloops payed MLB to start the season a week early on the other side of the world.  

When I'm in charge, all of this will be made right.  That's a promise.

Bay Area Home Run Leaders

It's the baseball offseason.  I'm a retired student between semesters (still hoping to pull a Favre at some point).  Consequently, I have some free time.  Hence this post.

Here are the top 50 career home run totals for players as a San Francisco Giant, Oakland Athletic, or both.  So the homers Mays hit as a New York Giant don't count, nor do all the home runs Dale Murphy hit at Candlestick.  I was definitely surprised at some of the players who made the list, and how high or low certain players ranked (Jim Ray Hart hit more homers as a Giant than Kevin Mitchell did?  Really?).  Feel free to share this list.  These stats are through the 2011 season.

1. Barry Bonds            586
2. Willie McCovey      469
3. Willie Mays             459
4. Mark McGwire       363
5. Reggie Jackson       268                              
6. Jose Canseco           254
7. Matt Williams          247
8. Eric Chavez             230
9. Orlando Cepeda      226
10. Jason Giambi          198
11. Sal Bando               192
12. Bobby Bonds          186
13. Dave Kingman       177
14. Will The Thrill        176
15. Jeff Kent                 175
16. Rickey Henderson   167
17. Jack Clark               163                            
18. Miguel Tejada         160
19. Jim Ray Hart           157
20. Dwayne Murphy     153
21. Kevin Mitchell        145
22. Rich Aurilia             143
23. Darrell Evans          142
24. Terry Steinbach       132
25. J. T. Snow              124
26. Matt Stairs               122
27. Gene Tenace          121
28. Robby Thompson  119
29. Joe Rudi                 116
30. Tony Armas           111
31. Tom Haller            107
32. Dave Henderson   104
33. Chili Davis            101
34. Jeffrey Leonard      99
35. Jack Cust                94
36. Carney Lansford    94
37. Felipe Alou            93
38. Bob Brenly            90
39. Wayne Gross         88
40. Geronimo Berroa   87
41. Mark Ellis              86
42. Mike Davis            84
43. Ray Durham          83
44. Nick Swisher         80
45. Jim Davenport       77
46. Scott Brosius         76
47. Ben Grieve            76
48. Chris Speier           70
49. Jermaine Dye         64
50. Gary Matthews      64

Notables who played for both teams (in order of Bay Area HR total):

Willie McCovey           SF: 469, Oak: 0
Orlando Cepeda         SF: 226, Oak: 0
Dave Kingman            SF: 77, Oak: 100, Tot: 177
Miguel Tejada        SF: 4 (yes, 4), Oak: 156, Tot: 160
Kevin Mitchell             SF: 143, Oak: 2, Tot: 145
Dave Henderson        Oak: 104, SF: 0,
Felipe Alou                SF: 85, Oak: 8, Tot: 93
Ray Durham               SF: 77, Oak: 6, Tot: 83
Gary Thomasson        SF: 38, Oak: 5, Tot: 43
Stan Javier                 SF: 17, Oak: 23, Tot: 40
Mike Aldrete              SF: 14, Oak: 18, Tot: 32
Joe Morgan                SF: 22, Oak: 6, Tot: 28
Ernie Riles                  SF: 18, Oak: 5, Tot: 23
Jesus Alou                  SF: 18, Oak: 3, Tot: 21
Dusty Baker                SF: 3, Oak: 18, Tot: 21
Matty Alou                  SF: 12, Oak: 1, Tot: 13

Just a few observations:

• Giving Kingman to Oakland, there are 26 Athletics and 24 Giants, but each team has 5 in the top 10.
• Eric Chavez never, ever would have crossed my mind as a possible top 10.
• I'm pleasantly surprised to see The Thrill one spot ahead of Jeff Kent.
• Rickey Henderson ahead of so many guys we think of as "sluggers" is just one more reminder of how awesome he was.
• Dwayne Murphy at #20 made me smile more than any other surprise on the list.
• Mitchell and Aurilia both had 143 homers as Giants, but Kevin hit 2 for Oakland in 1998, his last season in the big leagues.  Not counted are the 7 homers Mitchell hit for the Sonoma County Crushers in 2000.
• Do you think even Orlando Cepeda remembers he had 3 AB's (0-for-3) with Oakland in 1972?

Did I make any mistakes?  Let me know!  Raw data from the glorious baseball-reference.com.

Attention Brian Sabean

Re: Angel Pagan, Eli Whiteside, Carlos Beltran, Hiroyuki Nakajima, etc: 

The Dark Side Of Christmas Songs: A Non-Sports Post

I apologize for the lack of posting on this blog, and for the non-sports topic of this post, but someone has to say something about the attack on morality and high standards that returns every December like cousin Eddie and his RV.  Alarmingly, there are Christmas songs, widely embraced as part of a traditional celebration, but are, in fact, permeating our minds, and the minds of our children, with unsavory and dangerous ideas.

Please, take the time to read through this post, share it with your friends, family, and social networks, and then take appropriate actions regarding your own holiday music collection.

Winter Wonderland: In the meadow we can build a snowman, and pretend that he is Parson Brown. He'll say "Are you married?" we'll say "No, man. But you can do the job when you're in town."  There's so much wrong with this.  I mean, I get having a crush on the Parson.  He's probably a charismatic guy in a position of authority.  I can forgive that.  But now you're building a snowman, and pretending it's him?  How much detail are you putting in to the sculpting of this snowman?  Because there is a level of anatomic correctness that definitely crosses a line.  And then when he asks if you're single, you admit you are, but propose that he play the role of husband "when he's in town?"  That's sick.  What kind of snowman fantasy are you living in?

Even Rufio knows this
song is messed up.

Baby It's Cold Outside: Check out the back and forth conversation between a man and woman in this song.  Well maybe just a half a drink more (Put some music on while I pour), The neighbors might think (Baby, it's bad out there), Say, what's in this drink (No cabs to be had out there), and later I ought to say no, no, no, sir (Mind if I move closer), At least I'm gonna say that I tried (What's the sense in hurting my pride?), and in the next section I simply must go (Baby, it's cold outside), The answer is no (Ooh darling, it's cold outside).  Hey, jack, she said "the answer is 'no'."  And "what's in this drink?"  Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's called a rufie (no, Steve, not "rufio." That's something entirely different).  How does this song not end with Detective Benson and the whole SVU showing up?

Frosty The Snowman: He led them down the streets of town, Right to the traffic cop, And he only paused a moment when, He heard him holler "Stop!"  Yeah, that's a little something that's known as "resisting arrest."  Don't we already have enough problems with people not respecting law enforcement officers without our holiday songs encouraging rebellion?

We Wish You A Merry Christmas: Oh, bring us a figgy pudding; Oh, bring us a figgy pudding; Oh, bring us a figgy pudding and a cup of good cheer.  We won't go until we get some; We won't go until we get some; We won't go until we get some, so bring some out here.  This is the opposite of what I want to happen at my house on Christmas.  First off, "figgy pudding?"  That just sounds nasty.  More troubling, though, is the attitude of these Christmas guests.  First they make demands, and then they refuse to leave until those demands are met.  The last thing I need at the end of the big day is a group of people Occupying my Living Room.  What has happened to us as a society if part of our holiday preparations now include stocking up on riot gear and pepper spray?

Grandma Got Run Over By A Reindeer:  This song has never been welcome around any grandmothers I have known, but it's not just that she gets run over, it's what precedes that tragedy.  She'd been drinking too much eggnog, And we begged her not to go. But she forgot her medication, and she staggered out the door into the snow.  This family is the very definition of "dysfunctional."  First off, nobody is paying attention to the dangerous combination of the alcohol content of eggnog and the grandmother's medication?  A lot of those bottles have warning labels on them, and for a good reason.  Second, on Christmas Grandma skips her medication entirely?  So she's drunk, off her medications (for who knows what physical or psychological ailments), and she's barely ambulatory ("... staggered out the door"), but the family is satisfied that they've done their part by begging her "not to go."  I'm surprised there aren't more verses to this song, with things like "Uncle Bob wrapped his car around a telephone pole after we asked him for his keys and he said 'no'" or "someone should have mentioned to little Jimmy that it's a bad idea to take your new electronic toys into the bathtub."


So there you go.  Five "celebratory" Christmas songs that are actually destroying the foundation of good and decent people and families.  Continue to listen to these songs in your home at your own risk, and if your kids turn out to be drunken, demanding, disrespectful snowman fetishists, don't come crying to me.