Friday, April 27, 2012
Draft Post Coming Soon
I will be doing my assessment of this year's NFL Draft in just a few days. I am not a fan of judging or looking at a draft based on a single round. On a personal note, judging winners and losers after one round is a ridiculous endeavor that I will leave to the likes of Mel Kiper, John Clayton and Todd McShay.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Saintly or not, Innocent until proven foolish
The latest story to emerge from the NFL world once again involves the New Orleans Saints. According to sources at ESPN the saint GM Mickey Loomis is being accused of listening in on the conversations between the opposing teams offensive coordinator and their on field personnel. The debate that has ensued has been a hot one. At the center of this debate is whether or not there is any competitive advantage to doing this. Whether or not someone could listen in on that conversation and glean anything from it seems highly unlikely, but still the competitive balance that the NFL cherishes seems to have come under fire here. Here is a link to the ESPN story if you would like to read it for yourself. How in the world Hugh didnt reach across the table at the end of this debate and slam their heads together like something out of the three stooges is beyond me. This morning I watched Skip Bayless and Rob Parker (who is horrible at his job and not very insightful in any way) debate this with Hugh Douglas. Here is a link to that debate if you would like to enjoy watch it. Skip runs in marathons and spouts impossibly ignorant opinions, Parker is an embarrassment to sports writers everywhere
and Hugh was an NFL ALL-Pro with 80 career sacks and who happens to be an intelligent and insightful man. So you judge their credentials how you choose, but it really got me thinking about the absurdity of these accusations and the ensuing debates between the talking heads of ESPN.
My feelings on this topic are simple. There is no way that he did what he is accused of doing here. Yes, I am going on record and saying that I believe the Saints are innocent here. Here is why I feel this way. First of all, the insane belief that a man could hear the complicated lingo of an opposing offensive coordinator and understand it seems far fetched. Here is the one play call John Gruden made famous in his interview with Cam Newton.
Flip right, double-X, Jet, 36 counter, naked waggle, X-7, X-quarter (keep in mind everything is based on the context of player labels, so this play could mean something completely different based on player packages and team codes)
But it doesn’t stop there. Next he would have to translate the information in a consistently accurate manner to have it be of any use. Mickey Loomis is a GM, not a coach or a scout. If the information isn’t consistently accurate, you might as well throw darts at the wall. As a matter of fact that may have a slightly higher degree of accuracy. The NFL is based on misdirection and deception because defenses are so fast nowadays. If your GM tells you that the play is a run to the right for example and you act on that with full passion and aggressiveness, but the play ends up being a reverse left, you are toast and they are doing the smurfs celebration in the endzone at your expense. So the next time the information is passed from GM to you, it will be disregarded right? So you see the importance of consistently accurate information right?
Then after hearing the play call and then instantly translating the play call he would have to relay the information to the field from his luxury suite in a manner that draws zero attention. Sure you could have a guy on the field with binoculars looking at him before every play, but I am sure that someone would have noticed that little procedure. So I guess you could have a sweet walkie talkie, but once again that might seem a little odd to everyone else in the vicinity right? Seeing as his luxury suite is packed with people every week, it’s hard to imagine that not a single person is running forward to talk about how much walkie talkie time Loomis logs each week. So let’s say that Loomis came up with a discreet set of smoke signals to relay the complicated information, just how much information could you relay? I mean NFL plays are complicated and based on a series of check downs and formation shifts, so thinking there is an advantage to just relaying run or pass is a little naïve. Sit and watch a single game with me and I will accurately predict 90% of the plays based solely on the run or pass scenario. Truthfully, I can tell you everything you need to know about my teams tendencies and I can tell you just about everything they are going to do, and last I checked no one has called me to help them scout the Bears. So precise play direction and players would have to be relayed for any information to be construed as competitive advantage.
So, assuming ole Mr. Loomis was able to get this far, the information still has another set of hands to pass through. Assuming that a player couldn’t get away with having binoculars on the field, and there isn’t a good place to hide a walkie talkie in those uniforms, a coach would have to be complicit in this scheme to relay those amazing signals to the players on the field. So as the information comes to him, he then turns to his defensive captain and relays the same complicated information to him. Then that captain would have to relay the information to the team in the huddle, making sure of course that they don’t make it too obvious so as to alert the other team of their insider knowledge. Whew… still with me? Ok, did I mention that all of this has to be done in 20 seconds? 20 seconds…
My guess is it took you more than 20 seconds to understand the plain English in which I wrote the second paragraph of this article. I cannot imagine any team even attempting this, and I laugh at all of the media guys yammering on about how this is a way to gain competitive advantage whilst all of the football players are telling them it doesn’t help at all. If Loomis did in fact participate in this scandal as ESPN is reporting, he would have to make the stupidest criminal of the year. If ESPN recklessly accused this man of this crime without proper evidence they should be held accountable, but of course they won’t, reporters never are.
and Hugh was an NFL ALL-Pro with 80 career sacks and who happens to be an intelligent and insightful man. So you judge their credentials how you choose, but it really got me thinking about the absurdity of these accusations and the ensuing debates between the talking heads of ESPN.
My feelings on this topic are simple. There is no way that he did what he is accused of doing here. Yes, I am going on record and saying that I believe the Saints are innocent here. Here is why I feel this way. First of all, the insane belief that a man could hear the complicated lingo of an opposing offensive coordinator and understand it seems far fetched. Here is the one play call John Gruden made famous in his interview with Cam Newton.
Flip right, double-X, Jet, 36 counter, naked waggle, X-7, X-quarter (keep in mind everything is based on the context of player labels, so this play could mean something completely different based on player packages and team codes)
But it doesn’t stop there. Next he would have to translate the information in a consistently accurate manner to have it be of any use. Mickey Loomis is a GM, not a coach or a scout. If the information isn’t consistently accurate, you might as well throw darts at the wall. As a matter of fact that may have a slightly higher degree of accuracy. The NFL is based on misdirection and deception because defenses are so fast nowadays. If your GM tells you that the play is a run to the right for example and you act on that with full passion and aggressiveness, but the play ends up being a reverse left, you are toast and they are doing the smurfs celebration in the endzone at your expense. So the next time the information is passed from GM to you, it will be disregarded right? So you see the importance of consistently accurate information right?
Then after hearing the play call and then instantly translating the play call he would have to relay the information to the field from his luxury suite in a manner that draws zero attention. Sure you could have a guy on the field with binoculars looking at him before every play, but I am sure that someone would have noticed that little procedure. So I guess you could have a sweet walkie talkie, but once again that might seem a little odd to everyone else in the vicinity right? Seeing as his luxury suite is packed with people every week, it’s hard to imagine that not a single person is running forward to talk about how much walkie talkie time Loomis logs each week. So let’s say that Loomis came up with a discreet set of smoke signals to relay the complicated information, just how much information could you relay? I mean NFL plays are complicated and based on a series of check downs and formation shifts, so thinking there is an advantage to just relaying run or pass is a little naïve. Sit and watch a single game with me and I will accurately predict 90% of the plays based solely on the run or pass scenario. Truthfully, I can tell you everything you need to know about my teams tendencies and I can tell you just about everything they are going to do, and last I checked no one has called me to help them scout the Bears. So precise play direction and players would have to be relayed for any information to be construed as competitive advantage.
So, assuming ole Mr. Loomis was able to get this far, the information still has another set of hands to pass through. Assuming that a player couldn’t get away with having binoculars on the field, and there isn’t a good place to hide a walkie talkie in those uniforms, a coach would have to be complicit in this scheme to relay those amazing signals to the players on the field. So as the information comes to him, he then turns to his defensive captain and relays the same complicated information to him. Then that captain would have to relay the information to the team in the huddle, making sure of course that they don’t make it too obvious so as to alert the other team of their insider knowledge. Whew… still with me? Ok, did I mention that all of this has to be done in 20 seconds? 20 seconds…
My guess is it took you more than 20 seconds to understand the plain English in which I wrote the second paragraph of this article. I cannot imagine any team even attempting this, and I laugh at all of the media guys yammering on about how this is a way to gain competitive advantage whilst all of the football players are telling them it doesn’t help at all. If Loomis did in fact participate in this scandal as ESPN is reporting, he would have to make the stupidest criminal of the year. If ESPN recklessly accused this man of this crime without proper evidence they should be held accountable, but of course they won’t, reporters never are.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Anyone there?
In your humble, not preferably not, opinion... who is the biggest draft mistake your franchise has made in your lifetime? (chargers fans... ummm yeah we know. Packers fans.. yeah we know... and raiders fans... yeah we know but feel free to speak out anyway!)
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Draft Season
We are entering one of the most fun and yet at the same time, one of the most annoying seasons in sports. The season I am referring to is, of course, the NFL draft that is coming up April 26th. An event that has become so huge that it really has become its own entity. I love draft season because I, like so many other fans, live under the assumption that the right pick will catapult my team to the elite catergory, whilst the wrong pick will doom them to the basement for another long football season. We will sit there for hours (or like 2 seconds if you are a colts/skins fan) awaiting that one moment when the commisioner walks to the podium and says, with the 19th pick in the 2012 NFL draft the Chicago Bears select Luke Kuechly, linebacker from Boston College.
We do this because we are convinced that this pick or that pick will make all the difference to our team. This is the year that we turn it all around, and it always starts with the draft!! This is why we love it. It's the excitement of the unknown and the possibility that our team will snag our own Tom Brady in the 6th round. So why do I find this season annoying?
The endless mock drafts, workouts and opinions that flood the airwaves disecting every player available create such a convoluted picture that by the time the draft rolls around you will be dissappointed with whatever player your team selects. Why will you be dissappointed? Simple, because your player has weaknesses. Who knew? He has short arms, or small hands, or poor hip rotation, or a low wonderlic test, or poor choice in girls, or he "only" benched 225lbs 26 times, or he has 15% less quick twitch fiber in his right thigh than all others with comparative body structure to others in position class. Tell me it hasn't gotten out of hand? What ever happened to, hey that guy is a good football player and the on the field success proves it, we should take him! Somehow 400 tackles is not as indicative of ability as a vertical jump.
We have endless amounts of data, and what has all of this gotten us? Well honestly I dont think the draft results are any less of a crap shoot than they used to be when you just watched tape. Look I know that running in a straight line without pads is a strong indicator of how a guy will run in pads, whilst being chased and never in a straight line on a football field. So that being said, lets take look at a draft from a few years ago. I am a firm believer in the idea that you can't judge a draft until three years later. So lets take a look at all the success we derive from this mountain of data collection and hand measuring when we look at the first 10 picks of the 2009 draft. I mean you really have to be a lousy scout to screw up a top ten pick with all this data right? All these guys should be great and big time contributors to their teams... so here goes:
1) Matthew Stafford QB- after last season we can say well done Detroit
2) Jason Smith OT - oops...according to Todd McShay of Espn, "Smith has the best feet in the draft"...yep... best feet! Too bad he cant block eh?
3)Tyson Jackson DE- ummm eh... always hard to gauge the value of a DE in a 3-4 defense, but 2 sacks in his career is a little light.
4)Aaron Curry LB-oops...already on his second team, and that team being the raiders wont help
5)Mark Sanchez QB- ok pick. Nothing great, nothing horrible. Exactly what you hope from the fifth pick in the draft right?
6)Andre Smith OT- Same assessment as Sanchez.
7) Darius Heyward-Bay WR- HAHAHAHAHAHAHA... ok that was mean. Here is my honest assessment... HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
8)Eugene Monroe OT-Solid football player, and next to Stafford the best pick of the top 8
9) B.J. Raji DT- Once he figured it out he has become a dominant inside force. And, well he can dance in Insurance commercials in a really creepy way.
10) Michael Crabtree WR-oops... total me-first guy. Slow, bad work ethic and underachiever. And thats me being nice about him.
Those are the top ten guys in the draft. The NFL batted 3 for 10 and thats barely enough to be an allstar in baseball. And picking in the top ten is like taking swings in batting practice. By the way, picks 11 and 12 were total flops in the NFL. Guys they could have had include, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Lesean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Ledarious Webb and finally undrafted future nfl rushing champ Arian Foster, just to name a few. Its hard for me to believe that knowing the size of prospects hands, his arm length and his cone drill time doesn't stop these kinds of drafts from happening.
We do this because we are convinced that this pick or that pick will make all the difference to our team. This is the year that we turn it all around, and it always starts with the draft!! This is why we love it. It's the excitement of the unknown and the possibility that our team will snag our own Tom Brady in the 6th round. So why do I find this season annoying?
The endless mock drafts, workouts and opinions that flood the airwaves disecting every player available create such a convoluted picture that by the time the draft rolls around you will be dissappointed with whatever player your team selects. Why will you be dissappointed? Simple, because your player has weaknesses. Who knew? He has short arms, or small hands, or poor hip rotation, or a low wonderlic test, or poor choice in girls, or he "only" benched 225lbs 26 times, or he has 15% less quick twitch fiber in his right thigh than all others with comparative body structure to others in position class. Tell me it hasn't gotten out of hand? What ever happened to, hey that guy is a good football player and the on the field success proves it, we should take him! Somehow 400 tackles is not as indicative of ability as a vertical jump.
We have endless amounts of data, and what has all of this gotten us? Well honestly I dont think the draft results are any less of a crap shoot than they used to be when you just watched tape. Look I know that running in a straight line without pads is a strong indicator of how a guy will run in pads, whilst being chased and never in a straight line on a football field. So that being said, lets take look at a draft from a few years ago. I am a firm believer in the idea that you can't judge a draft until three years later. So lets take a look at all the success we derive from this mountain of data collection and hand measuring when we look at the first 10 picks of the 2009 draft. I mean you really have to be a lousy scout to screw up a top ten pick with all this data right? All these guys should be great and big time contributors to their teams... so here goes:
1) Matthew Stafford QB- after last season we can say well done Detroit
2) Jason Smith OT - oops...according to Todd McShay of Espn, "Smith has the best feet in the draft"...yep... best feet! Too bad he cant block eh?
3)Tyson Jackson DE- ummm eh... always hard to gauge the value of a DE in a 3-4 defense, but 2 sacks in his career is a little light.
4)Aaron Curry LB-oops...already on his second team, and that team being the raiders wont help
5)Mark Sanchez QB- ok pick. Nothing great, nothing horrible. Exactly what you hope from the fifth pick in the draft right?
6)Andre Smith OT- Same assessment as Sanchez.
7) Darius Heyward-Bay WR- HAHAHAHAHAHAHA... ok that was mean. Here is my honest assessment... HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
8)Eugene Monroe OT-Solid football player, and next to Stafford the best pick of the top 8
9) B.J. Raji DT- Once he figured it out he has become a dominant inside force. And, well he can dance in Insurance commercials in a really creepy way.
10) Michael Crabtree WR-oops... total me-first guy. Slow, bad work ethic and underachiever. And thats me being nice about him.
Those are the top ten guys in the draft. The NFL batted 3 for 10 and thats barely enough to be an allstar in baseball. And picking in the top ten is like taking swings in batting practice. By the way, picks 11 and 12 were total flops in the NFL. Guys they could have had include, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews, Lesean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Ledarious Webb and finally undrafted future nfl rushing champ Arian Foster, just to name a few. Its hard for me to believe that knowing the size of prospects hands, his arm length and his cone drill time doesn't stop these kinds of drafts from happening.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Giants Offseason and Roster Review
When the 2011 season ended for the San Francisco Giants, I had a list of things I wanted them to do before Opening Day 2012. Seeing as how today is Opening Day (for the Giants, anyway), this seems like the right time to look back at what they did and didn't do to reshape their roster into one that will still pitch extremely well, but also hit a little.
My priorities were:
Despite plenty of hand wringing and flabbergastedness at various points during the winter, it turns out that this wasn't such a bad offseason after all. Let's review.
The final tally is 9 missions accomplished (even though 2 of them are the same thing) and only 3 not accomplished. Overall, not a bad offseason.
As for the opening day roster, I'm happy with the projected lineup and really stoked about the bench. I know many fans want Schierholtz to start because he might be a solid everyday player, but he is an elite bench player. Burriss has earned the opportunity to fill the utility man role. Blanco absolutely earned his spot during the spring, and hopefully he can be sort of the new Darren Ford, except that he can hit a little. I think Pill will be what they hoped Mark DeRosa would be last year; nice righty bat off the bench with a little pop, doesn't play great defense but is adequate at at least 3 positions and passable (in short stints) at a couple of others. As I stated earlier, I'm stoked about Hector Sanchez as the backup catcher.
I don't know if the Giants will return to the playoffs this year, but I think they have the pieces to again content right to the end. Sabean used to say his goal was for the Giants to get into the playoffs, because once you get in "anything can happen." Except that what usually happened was that they'd get bounced in the first round. Now, with what I think is the best total pitching staff in baseball, just getting into the playoffs might lead to another world series title.
My priorities were:
- Don't do anything stupid.
- Lock up Cain with a contract extension.
- Sign Jose Reyes, but not to a stupid contract.
- If they can't get Reyes, re-sign Beltran.
- If they can't get Reyes and Boston declines Marco Scutaro's option, sign him for 1 or 2 years. If they do pick up the option, still try to trade for him, as a short-term solution while Brandon Crawford further develops the offensive side of his game.
- Keep Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez.
- If they can't get Reyes, find some way to upgrade the leadoff spot in the order.
- Build the roster with a starting spot for Brandon Belt clearly defined.
- Be extra careful with Buster Posey's return. He is a long-term necessity for success.
- Because we're going to be careful with Posey, finding a backup catcher who can hit a little is crucial.
- Retain other Giants free agents only if they will accept extremely reasonable terms and a reserve role.
- Don't do anything stupid.
Despite plenty of hand wringing and flabbergastedness at various points during the winter, it turns out that this wasn't such a bad offseason after all. Let's review.
 |
| Matt Cain will continue to be the longest tenured Giant |
- They didn't do anything that qualifies as stupid. Unless Matt Cain's arm falls off in game 2 of the season, none of their moves have the potential to be damaging long-term. So mission accomplished on this one? Yes!
- I am extremely but pleasantly surprised with the Cain contract. Yeah, it's a ton of money, but he would have gotten at least this deal, and probably more, if he hit the open market after the season. Yes it's a risk, but given Cain's history and body, it doesn't seem like an unwise risk. Mission accomplished? Double yes!!
- Not surprisingly, Jose Reyes received a contract offer that is at least kind of stupid. He is a dynamic, game changing player when healthy. But that's the problem. He has a history of not always being healthy, and that only figures to get worse the older he gets. I'm pleased that Brian Sabean and the Giants front office didn't match or try to top the package that Miami gave to Reyes. Mission accomplished? Yes.
- It's very possible that Beltran just didn't want to stay in San Francisco, but the 2 year deal he got from St. Louis seemed pretty dang reasonable, given the market. I would have very much liked to see the Giants match or even modestly top the deal Beltran signed for. Mission accomplished? No, but I still think making the Wheeler-for-Beltran trade last summer was the right move to make at the time.
- I don't remember seeing any "Scutaro to the Giants" rumors, but he seemed like such a perfect fit. Solid defender, reasonable offensive contribution, reasonable money, veteran experience, and a short term deal. I figured one more year of learning to hit at the AAA level wouldn't hurt Brandon Crawford. Plus, if Crawford showed he was really ready for the big leagues, they could call him up and slide Scutaro to second when Freddy Sanchez gets hurt. Mission accomplished? No, but again, this was only a mission in my mind.
- The Giants might have the best bullpen, top to bottom, in all of baseball. Obviously, Affeldt and Lopez are big parts of that, and as far as I can tell, they're both really good guys and good teammates. But for a team that both desperately needs an offensive upgrade and has been very public about payroll limits, it didn't make much sense to keep both of them. Lopez, Runzler, and $4 million towards Reyes or Beltran is better than Lopez and Affeldt. Mission accomplished? Not really, but I'm not too bothered by it.
- Not sure how to score this one. Yes, they acquired 2 players who are both some measure of upgrade from Andres Torres, and those players were acquired through pretty fair trades (not to be confused with Fair Trade). The problem is that they acquired 2 players, which causes problems for the next issue. Mission accomplished? Yes, I guess.
- All spring Bochy was saying that the outfield would be Cabrera, Pagan, and Schierholtz. With Huff getting paid big bucks, that seemed to leave no position for Brandon Belt. This is why I don't really understand picking up Cabrera and Pagan; 2 guys who essentially fill the same role. Plus, I like Nate Schierholtz but I don't think he's shown he can be a successful everyday MLB player, and we just don't know that about Belt yet. However, it looks like Belt will in fact get a chance to play often (if not every day) at first base, with Huff moving to left. Despite what Hank Schulman says, I'm not convinced that Huff is the one who should shift to the outfield, but I am on board with Schierholtz being the guy who loses playing time in favor of Belt, at least until the players prove otherwise. Mission accomplished? Yes, at the last minute!
- At times during the Cactus League it seemed like they were being very conservative with Posey working his way back into actual games. Good. Without personally examining Buster's MRI, it seems like they handled the whole situation very well. Mission accomplished. Big yes!
- With Posey slated to get regular days off and some time at first base, we could be looking at 50-60 starts for the backup catcher, so it's kind of a big deal. I wanted Ramon Hernandez, or at least someone who could hit .220, but they didn't bring anyone in. Throughout spring training, we were hearing that there was a competition between Stewart and Whiteside for the backup catcher spot. Then right before the season started, Stewart gets traded to the Yankees (for a reliever who might actually be helpful at some point), and Whiteside gets sent down. That means Hector Sanchez is the backup catcher, and it makes me very happy. We know Stewart and Whiteside can't hit, but all we know about Sanchez is that he raked in the minors last year. Keeping Whiteside in the organization, in case Sanchez just doesn't cut it, is a good idea, but I am very pleasantly surprised at this move. It might be the most un-Sabean thing Sabean has ever done. Mission accomplished? Yes!
- I don't begrudge Cody Ross taking the Red Sox offer. Get what you can get, Cody. But again, I'm glad the Giants didn't overspend to keep players who didn't contribute much last year. Mission accomplished? Yes.
- Looking at this list, there are things I wanted the Giants to do that they didn't, and they did a few things I don't really understand. But they didn't do anything that turned them into non-contenders, nor did they do anything that is going to hurt their chances for success in the years to come. Basically, they did not do anything stupid. Mission accomplished? Yes.
 |
| Welcome back, Buster |
As for the opening day roster, I'm happy with the projected lineup and really stoked about the bench. I know many fans want Schierholtz to start because he might be a solid everyday player, but he is an elite bench player. Burriss has earned the opportunity to fill the utility man role. Blanco absolutely earned his spot during the spring, and hopefully he can be sort of the new Darren Ford, except that he can hit a little. I think Pill will be what they hoped Mark DeRosa would be last year; nice righty bat off the bench with a little pop, doesn't play great defense but is adequate at at least 3 positions and passable (in short stints) at a couple of others. As I stated earlier, I'm stoked about Hector Sanchez as the backup catcher.
I don't know if the Giants will return to the playoffs this year, but I think they have the pieces to again content right to the end. Sabean used to say his goal was for the Giants to get into the playoffs, because once you get in "anything can happen." Except that what usually happened was that they'd get bounced in the first round. Now, with what I think is the best total pitching staff in baseball, just getting into the playoffs might lead to another world series title.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Official 2012 Baseball Picks & Predictions
As we head toward the end of what has become Opening Week, it's time to unveil our picks for who will be playing in October and who will be taking home baseball's major awards. Like pretty much everyone who makes public pre-season picks, we won't remind anyone of this post in November unless one of us (or both of us) were really close. That's just a little up front transparency. We made our picks individually, then got together over some bratwurst during the Tigers/Red Sox game on the Opening Day 3.0 and compared lists.
AL East
Adam: Red Sox
Gabe: Red Sox
AL Central
Adam: Tigers
Gabe: Tigers
AL West
Adam: Angels
Gabe: Rangers
AL Wild Cards
Adam: Yankees and Rangers
Gabe: Yankees and Angels
AL Pennant
Adam: Red Sox
Gabe: Angels
NL East
Adam: Phillies
Gabe: Braves
NL Central
Adam: Cardinals
Gabe: Reds
NL West
Adam: Rockies
Gabe: D-Bags
NL Wild Cards
Adam: Braves and Giants
Gabe: Phillies and Giants
NL Pennant
Adam: Giants
Gabe: D-Bags
World Series Winner
Adam: Giants
Gabe: Angels
So yeah, I feel like a bad fan for not picking the Giants to go all the way, but I'm not yet convinced that their pitching and hitting can top Arizona's hitting and pitching. Of course that doesn't mean I don't want them to win, because I hope they do, but a lot of things will have to go right for them to get into the playoffs. And that's Adam's reason for picking them to go all the way. He said "I just think if the Giants get to the postseason they may be unbeatable." I hope he's right. But I wouldn't bet on it. Unless we were betting Mexican food. Or pie. Because hey, even if I lose ... I'd still get pie.
Anyway, I'm going with the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim because I expect them to take a little while to gel as a unit, to the point they may not catch Texas for the division title, but once they do they will be extremely tough to beat. They're going to excel in every facet of the game.
That said, we both feel like the race for last in the AL West will be almost as hard fought as the race for first. The A's and Mariners will most likely be really, really bad. Nigh-unwatchable even (sorry A's fans, and Dave and Anthony).
We also agree that the biggest runaway division winner will be Detroit. Adam said "They were going to win that division before they signed Prince Fielder."
Ok. Awards and ... other picks. Again, we made our picks without any collaboration. We're just that good.
AL MVP
Adam: Robinson Cano
Gabe: Robinson Cano
Right now he's likely the best player on a team loaded with All Stars and Hall of Famers.
NL MVP
Adam: Justin Upton
Gabe: Justin Upton
It's his time to shine.
AL Cy Young
Adam: Jeff Weaver ("They're going to score a ton of runs and he'll get enough wins that people will notice how good his other numbers are.")
Gabe: David Price ("The number one guy on the best overall pitching staff in baseball. Even though their #5 starter has never won a Cy Young Award.")
NL Cy Young
Adam: Cole Hamels (Me: "Walk year?" Adam: "Yep.")
Gabe: Tim Lincecum ("Wants to prove he's still the top dog in San Francisco.")
AL Manager of the Year
Adam: Mike Scioscia
Gabe: Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year
Adam: Mike Matheny ("They're going to continue to be a powerhouse and Matheny is going to get a lot of the credit for that.")
Gabe: Kirk Gibson ("... whom I hate.")
AL Comeback Player
Adam: Kendry Morales
Gabe: Adam Lind (Adam: "Wow. Didn't he hit like, 30 homers last year?" Me: "That's the most condescending 'wow' you've ever said to me." Adam: "And there have been a lot of condescending 'wows'." Me: "Yep." And it was only 26 homers.)
NL Comeback Player
Adam: Adam Wainwright
Gabe: Buster Posey
NL Comeback Player, 1989 Edition
Adam: Lonnie Smith (the actual winner, who came back from cocaine addiction)
Gabe: Dave Dravecky (who should have won, after coming back from freaking cancer!)
AL Breakout Player
Adam: Mitch Moreland
Gabe: Jemile Weeks
NL Breakout Player
Adam: Jason Heyward
Gabe: Chase Headley
There you have it, our picks for 2012. If we're right on (or even pretty darn close), you'll be seeing these again. If not, check back next April for our 2013 picks.
AL East
Adam: Red Sox
Gabe: Red Sox
AL Central
Adam: Tigers
Gabe: Tigers
AL West
Adam: Angels
Gabe: Rangers
AL Wild Cards
Adam: Yankees and Rangers
Gabe: Yankees and Angels
AL Pennant
Adam: Red Sox
Gabe: Angels
NL East
Adam: Phillies
Gabe: Braves
NL Central
Adam: Cardinals
Gabe: Reds
NL West
Adam: Rockies
Gabe: D-Bags
NL Wild Cards
Adam: Braves and Giants
Gabe: Phillies and Giants
NL Pennant
Adam: Giants
Gabe: D-Bags
World Series Winner
Adam: Giants
Gabe: Angels
So yeah, I feel like a bad fan for not picking the Giants to go all the way, but I'm not yet convinced that their pitching and hitting can top Arizona's hitting and pitching. Of course that doesn't mean I don't want them to win, because I hope they do, but a lot of things will have to go right for them to get into the playoffs. And that's Adam's reason for picking them to go all the way. He said "I just think if the Giants get to the postseason they may be unbeatable." I hope he's right. But I wouldn't bet on it. Unless we were betting Mexican food. Or pie. Because hey, even if I lose ... I'd still get pie.
Anyway, I'm going with the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim because I expect them to take a little while to gel as a unit, to the point they may not catch Texas for the division title, but once they do they will be extremely tough to beat. They're going to excel in every facet of the game.
That said, we both feel like the race for last in the AL West will be almost as hard fought as the race for first. The A's and Mariners will most likely be really, really bad. Nigh-unwatchable even (sorry A's fans, and Dave and Anthony).
We also agree that the biggest runaway division winner will be Detroit. Adam said "They were going to win that division before they signed Prince Fielder."
Ok. Awards and ... other picks. Again, we made our picks without any collaboration. We're just that good.
AL MVP
Adam: Robinson Cano
 | |
|
Right now he's likely the best player on a team loaded with All Stars and Hall of Famers.
NL MVP
Adam: Justin Upton
Gabe: Justin Upton
It's his time to shine.
AL Cy Young
Adam: Jeff Weaver ("They're going to score a ton of runs and he'll get enough wins that people will notice how good his other numbers are.")
Gabe: David Price ("The number one guy on the best overall pitching staff in baseball. Even though their #5 starter has never won a Cy Young Award.")
NL Cy Young
Adam: Cole Hamels (Me: "Walk year?" Adam: "Yep.")
Gabe: Tim Lincecum ("Wants to prove he's still the top dog in San Francisco.")
AL Manager of the Year
Adam: Mike Scioscia
Gabe: Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year
Adam: Mike Matheny ("They're going to continue to be a powerhouse and Matheny is going to get a lot of the credit for that.")
Gabe: Kirk Gibson ("... whom I hate.")
AL Comeback Player
Adam: Kendry Morales
Gabe: Adam Lind (Adam: "Wow. Didn't he hit like, 30 homers last year?" Me: "That's the most condescending 'wow' you've ever said to me." Adam: "And there have been a lot of condescending 'wows'." Me: "Yep." And it was only 26 homers.)
NL Comeback Player
Adam: Adam Wainwright
Gabe: Buster Posey
NL Comeback Player, 1989 Edition
Adam: Lonnie Smith (the actual winner, who came back from cocaine addiction)
Gabe: Dave Dravecky (who should have won, after coming back from freaking cancer!)
AL Breakout Player
Adam: Mitch Moreland
Gabe: Jemile Weeks
NL Breakout Player
Adam: Jason Heyward
Gabe: Chase Headley
There you have it, our picks for 2012. If we're right on (or even pretty darn close), you'll be seeing these again. If not, check back next April for our 2013 picks.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Opening Morning Thoughts
I know Gabe wrote a great piece a few days ago on the opening day nightmare that Selig has created, but I wanted to make a couple of comments this morning on a missed opportunity. One of the great things about opening day is you get the best pitching match-ups possible, or at least you are supposed to. I am looking this morning at the match-up featuring Verlander against Lester. This is what opening day is supposed to be about in Major League Baseball. There is no guaranty that these two will face off again this year, and baseball needs to learn to take full advantage of these kinds of match-ups.
So many story lines in this game to watch.
Prince Fielder making his Detroit debut, which coincidentally has reignited the restaurant business in Detroit. Miguel Cabrera returning from a brutal spring training in jury. Verlander and his insane pitching arsenal coming off a season of complete dominance with the goal of even being better than before. Lester and the beer and chicken brigade trying to bounce back and regain so much of their trust equity in beantown. Bobby Valentine and his triumphant, err odd, return to the major league dugout. This match up would naturally be an easy sell and easy to hype if baseball just remained true to opening day.
Who cares about Lohse against Joshson or Felix against some future trade bait Athletic? The reality is there is something great about just letting what is opening day be opening day. Verlander against Lester. Hanson against Santana. Strasberg against that Cub guy. Halladay against some Pirate pretending to be Halladay. This is a great day and you should all be calling in sick to work to watch baseball. Don't let the schedulers take this day away. Enjoy it for what it is... the only day of the year that you will ever watch a Justin Masterson start!
Prince Fielder making his Detroit debut, which coincidentally has reignited the restaurant business in Detroit. Miguel Cabrera returning from a brutal spring training in jury. Verlander and his insane pitching arsenal coming off a season of complete dominance with the goal of even being better than before. Lester and the beer and chicken brigade trying to bounce back and regain so much of their trust equity in beantown. Bobby Valentine and his triumphant, err odd, return to the major league dugout. This match up would naturally be an easy sell and easy to hype if baseball just remained true to opening day.
Who cares about Lohse against Joshson or Felix against some future trade bait Athletic? The reality is there is something great about just letting what is opening day be opening day. Verlander against Lester. Hanson against Santana. Strasberg against that Cub guy. Halladay against some Pirate pretending to be Halladay. This is a great day and you should all be calling in sick to work to watch baseball. Don't let the schedulers take this day away. Enjoy it for what it is... the only day of the year that you will ever watch a Justin Masterson start!
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Why I wouldn't want Elway to be my wingman
I would like to apologize for my long absence from the blog. There. I said it. So let’s get started with my feelings about John Elway.I am sure he is a good guy in his own self-centered arrogant schmucky kind of way. I am sure that he is fun at corporate parties, parades and Bronco legends games. But seriously, is there anyone on earth who trusts a single word that comes out of his gigantic mouth? I like Tim Tebow, but I don’t love him as a football player. So you can shelf all of your “Tebowmania” criticism of me. John Elway was a great player, maybe even one of the better QB’s in NFL history. He was great at captaining comebacks (of course he was only behind because he couldn’t score enough points in the 1st three quarters to give his team the lead…hmmmm… sounds like a left handed gator we all know), he was also great at scrambling, and won two Superbowls. I won’t mention the he led his team to getting housed three times in the big game by a grand total of 96 points!! The Bronco offense led by Mr. Elway was completely inept in those three games, but I am sure that his proponents will just blame their defense. So wait, “Tebowmaniacs” aren’t the only ones who mindlessly defend their guy? What? Crazy you say.
Anyway, I digress. John Elway needs to face the reality that he is no longer the captain of the Broncos. He isn’t the coach. He isn’t the owner. He is the Vice President of Football Operations. Yep. It’s the job that every team gives their great player to make sure that he stays their property. I am sure he is a great business man and I know he knows a ton about football but the one area he is really lacking in is the loyalty department. Loyalty is a scary thing. Sometimes it demands of us a forsaking of our own best interests for the betterment of others. Loyalty should be present in all of us, but seems to only be present in the best of us. The loyalty that Elway coveted from the Broncos organization when he was desiring employment with them is the same loyalty he refused to give his Broncos last year. Elway took to the airways over and over last year to sabotage his QB by refusing to ever state any trust in the young man trying to find his way in the league. And instead of remaining silent about his doubts like any mature person would, he opened his giant mouth every chance he got to adamantly get his objections of Tebow as the long term starter on the record. His reasoning was based on Tebow ineffectiveness on third downs. Yep, not winning and losing. Third downs. I hear it all the time, stats don’t lie my friend and Tebow’s stats are poor. Well lets have some fun with stats shall we? I have handpicked a few of the great John Elways stats to illustrate this foolishness.
1. He owns a less than stellar touchdown to interception ratio. He had 300 touchdowns to 226 interceptions. That’s right 1.32 to 1. That would be the same td/int ratio as Jeff George, which is incredibly lower than Tim Tebow’s ratio. For the record, Joe Montana’s ratio is 1.96 if you are looking for a contemporary of Elway. Marino is 1.66. Neil Lomax had one hip and mustered a strong 1.5. And the capper here? Tony Romo is over 2!
2. Jeff George has a higher QB Rating Elway. I can’t tell you how fun it was to type that sentence.
3. Jeff George has a higher Completion percentage than Elway. Ok, now I am just being mean.
4. Ok one more! John Elway threw more interceptions per attempt than Jeff George.
His stats are actually very average in most cases. But it’s about winning right? The entire soap opera was reminiscent of the way he sabotaged Baltimore after they took him with the first pick in the draft back in 1983 by leveraging the possibility of his baseball career with the Yankees against the Colts to force them to trade him to another, better, team. You see Elway didn’t want to play nice with the Colts because he had objections about their team quality and their hardnosed coach, so he just took to the airwaves and demanded a trade or he wouldn’t play football.
Oddly enough, during his ill-fated rookie campaign with the Broncos that ended with a shellacking at the hands of the Seahawks, he was pulled for Steve Deberg . Deberg held down the starting job for a few weeks until he got injured allowing Elway to start again, but of course when the playoffs rolled around Elway was replaced by Deberg yet again. You would think that being jerked around like that when you were a young starting QB would make you a bit more sensitive to the plight of your team’s new young QB, but not so with Mr. Elway. After his on air assault of Tebow failed and the Broncos , against all odds, won a playoff game he had no choice but to back his QB. I guess that’s what happens when you win games eh John? He ate some tasty crow and gave Tebow his unfettered support with a “was behind you all the way” kind of tone. He returned to the airwaves to tell the world that Tebow earned the starting job for next year and that he would certainly be the starter going into camp next summer. Whoa John, let’s not get too carried away with the gushy support. Well, he forgot to mention that earning it and receiving it are two completely different things in Elwayville. As a matter of fact I am sure that John Elway will announce this month that they are no longer using “gator”ade on the sidelines this year just to completely remove his Judas like betrayal from the minds of Bronco fans.
It is clear that John Elway needs to have things his way, and he seems to really hate the idea of anyone pushing in on his deity status in Denver. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out he kicked Terrell Davis in the knee back in 1999. On the flip side, I happen to be a big fan of Coach John Fox because he has always seemed like a really honest guy who coaches the right way. I inevitably felt bad for him during every press conference last year because you could tell that anytime he voiced any support for Tebow he would be called to Elway’s office to be beaten with a phone book for an hour whilst being asked “who is your daddy?” Honestly, if Peyton is too successful I wouldn’t be surprised to find out Elway books him on a flight to the Bermuda Triangle for a weekend getaway with Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo for winning Bronco employee of the month. Of course this saga would end with Elway calling of the local papers together to announce that he has recently activated himself for the playoffs.
I wish Peyton all the best during his time in Denver. When I saw the Peyton Manning United Way commercial on SNL a few years ago I dedicated myself to being a Peyton fan for life, so I refuse to renege on that now. But, I can never in good conscience root for the Broncos to achieve any level of success until the day comes that they part ways with Mr. Elway. With Manning in the fold they will certainly be a team that contends every year that he is healthy, possibly knocking on the door to the big game a time or two because Peyton is just that good. I know that trading away Tebow and signing Manning makes sense in every conceivable way from a football perspective, but the manner in which Elway treated a QB that was under his care last year proves he is only concerned about himself. Elway would certainly say to me that he didn’t draft Tebow and therefore wasn’t required to back him. Well, the Broncos didn’t draft you Mr. Elway, the Colts did, and you showed no allegiance to them whilst you whined your way into a trade to the Broncos . Maybe, just maybe, this pattern of disloyalty is really just the residue of what resides in the recesses of your dark self-serving mind.
...Or maybe I am just too needlessly bitter about this…
Anyway, I digress. John Elway needs to face the reality that he is no longer the captain of the Broncos. He isn’t the coach. He isn’t the owner. He is the Vice President of Football Operations. Yep. It’s the job that every team gives their great player to make sure that he stays their property. I am sure he is a great business man and I know he knows a ton about football but the one area he is really lacking in is the loyalty department. Loyalty is a scary thing. Sometimes it demands of us a forsaking of our own best interests for the betterment of others. Loyalty should be present in all of us, but seems to only be present in the best of us. The loyalty that Elway coveted from the Broncos organization when he was desiring employment with them is the same loyalty he refused to give his Broncos last year. Elway took to the airways over and over last year to sabotage his QB by refusing to ever state any trust in the young man trying to find his way in the league. And instead of remaining silent about his doubts like any mature person would, he opened his giant mouth every chance he got to adamantly get his objections of Tebow as the long term starter on the record. His reasoning was based on Tebow ineffectiveness on third downs. Yep, not winning and losing. Third downs. I hear it all the time, stats don’t lie my friend and Tebow’s stats are poor. Well lets have some fun with stats shall we? I have handpicked a few of the great John Elways stats to illustrate this foolishness.
1. He owns a less than stellar touchdown to interception ratio. He had 300 touchdowns to 226 interceptions. That’s right 1.32 to 1. That would be the same td/int ratio as Jeff George, which is incredibly lower than Tim Tebow’s ratio. For the record, Joe Montana’s ratio is 1.96 if you are looking for a contemporary of Elway. Marino is 1.66. Neil Lomax had one hip and mustered a strong 1.5. And the capper here? Tony Romo is over 2!
2. Jeff George has a higher QB Rating Elway. I can’t tell you how fun it was to type that sentence.
3. Jeff George has a higher Completion percentage than Elway. Ok, now I am just being mean.
4. Ok one more! John Elway threw more interceptions per attempt than Jeff George.
His stats are actually very average in most cases. But it’s about winning right? The entire soap opera was reminiscent of the way he sabotaged Baltimore after they took him with the first pick in the draft back in 1983 by leveraging the possibility of his baseball career with the Yankees against the Colts to force them to trade him to another, better, team. You see Elway didn’t want to play nice with the Colts because he had objections about their team quality and their hardnosed coach, so he just took to the airwaves and demanded a trade or he wouldn’t play football.
Oddly enough, during his ill-fated rookie campaign with the Broncos that ended with a shellacking at the hands of the Seahawks, he was pulled for Steve Deberg . Deberg held down the starting job for a few weeks until he got injured allowing Elway to start again, but of course when the playoffs rolled around Elway was replaced by Deberg yet again. You would think that being jerked around like that when you were a young starting QB would make you a bit more sensitive to the plight of your team’s new young QB, but not so with Mr. Elway. After his on air assault of Tebow failed and the Broncos , against all odds, won a playoff game he had no choice but to back his QB. I guess that’s what happens when you win games eh John? He ate some tasty crow and gave Tebow his unfettered support with a “was behind you all the way” kind of tone. He returned to the airwaves to tell the world that Tebow earned the starting job for next year and that he would certainly be the starter going into camp next summer. Whoa John, let’s not get too carried away with the gushy support. Well, he forgot to mention that earning it and receiving it are two completely different things in Elwayville. As a matter of fact I am sure that John Elway will announce this month that they are no longer using “gator”ade on the sidelines this year just to completely remove his Judas like betrayal from the minds of Bronco fans.
It is clear that John Elway needs to have things his way, and he seems to really hate the idea of anyone pushing in on his deity status in Denver. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out he kicked Terrell Davis in the knee back in 1999. On the flip side, I happen to be a big fan of Coach John Fox because he has always seemed like a really honest guy who coaches the right way. I inevitably felt bad for him during every press conference last year because you could tell that anytime he voiced any support for Tebow he would be called to Elway’s office to be beaten with a phone book for an hour whilst being asked “who is your daddy?” Honestly, if Peyton is too successful I wouldn’t be surprised to find out Elway books him on a flight to the Bermuda Triangle for a weekend getaway with Jessica Simpson and Tony Romo for winning Bronco employee of the month. Of course this saga would end with Elway calling of the local papers together to announce that he has recently activated himself for the playoffs.
I wish Peyton all the best during his time in Denver. When I saw the Peyton Manning United Way commercial on SNL a few years ago I dedicated myself to being a Peyton fan for life, so I refuse to renege on that now. But, I can never in good conscience root for the Broncos to achieve any level of success until the day comes that they part ways with Mr. Elway. With Manning in the fold they will certainly be a team that contends every year that he is healthy, possibly knocking on the door to the big game a time or two because Peyton is just that good. I know that trading away Tebow and signing Manning makes sense in every conceivable way from a football perspective, but the manner in which Elway treated a QB that was under his care last year proves he is only concerned about himself. Elway would certainly say to me that he didn’t draft Tebow and therefore wasn’t required to back him. Well, the Broncos didn’t draft you Mr. Elway, the Colts did, and you showed no allegiance to them whilst you whined your way into a trade to the Broncos . Maybe, just maybe, this pattern of disloyalty is really just the residue of what resides in the recesses of your dark self-serving mind.
...Or maybe I am just too needlessly bitter about this…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)